Fighting spreads from Tigray into Afar and Amhara days after seven armed groups declare anti-Abiy alliance
Al Jazeera (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/24/fighting-widens-across-ethiopia-as-tigray-clashes-escalate) reports that fighting escalated around southern Tigray on 23 September and spread into Afar and Amhara, with Tigrayan forces reportedly taking the Abala district capital in Afar and seizing regional airports, and federal forces using drone strikes. Each side blames the other: Tigrayan forces describe a federal "full-scale offensive", while the government side says the TPLF attacked first. No casualty figures are given. Ethiopian Airlines suspended Tigray flights and IGAD called for a ceasefire. On 21 September, Al Jazeera reported (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/ethiopian-armed-groups-forge-alliance-against-government) that the TPLF, Amhara Fano, the OLA, the ONLF and three smaller groups had announced an alliance to set up a transitional government.
Interpretation: the 2022 Pretoria settlement is now functionally broken. Addis Ababa faces coordinated pressure on several fronts from groups that fought each other in 2020–22. That constrains Abiy's Red Sea ambitions toward Eritrea. It also invites neighbours, Eritrea first, to back the rebels as a cheap way to bleed him.